In 2014, we published a series of blog posts on the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). These posts described what each stage of the DTM means and provided example case studies. To this day, this blog series is one of the most popular resources on PopulationEducation.org.
Now, more than ten years later, we wanted to revisit those posts and provide updates on data, case studies, and global context for each stage of the DTM. This new blog series will show the characteristics of each stage of the DTM and provide current case studies on different countries around the world for each stage.
These blogs are designed for students and teachers alike to gain a better understanding of how to identify each stage of the DTM and what the DTM looks like in the real world. Below is an overview of the DTM as a whole and what readers can expect to find in each post in this blog series.
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What is the Demographic Transition Model?
The Demographic Transition Model describes a process observed around the world where human populations change from having high birth rates and high death rates to having low birth rates and low death rates. Birth rates are measured as the number of live births in a population per 1,000 people, and death rates are measured as the number of deaths in a population per 1,000 people.
Birth and death rates don’t change at the same rate as each other, but they do follow recognizable patterns that identify a country as being in one of five stages of the DTM. Countries do not follow the DTM at the same rate as one another, and today we see countries at many different stages of the demographic transition.
Fertility Rates and the DTM
Some of the blog posts in this series will explore connections between fertility rates and the DTM. Fertility rates are often discussed in conjunction with the DTM, but are not technically reflected in the definitions of each stage. Fertility rate is the average number of children a woman in a given population can expect to bear over her lifetime. Fertility rate accounts for the number of women of childbearing age in a given population, while birth rate measures births compared to the population as a whole.
Contents of this DTM Blog Series
This blog series features a separate post for each of the five stages of the DTM.
These blog posts will:
- Describe the characteristics that identify a country as in a given DTM stage.
- Provide historical context for when countries began entering and exiting each stage of the DTM.
- Explain how prevalent each stage of the DTM is among countries in the world today.
Most of these blog posts will contain a case study describing a country that is currently in that particular DTM stage and why. The exception is DTM stage 1, which is not seen in any country today and is now considered a historical designation.
The DTM case studies are as follows:
DTM Connections to APHG and APES
The DTM is required course content for AP Human Geography (APHG) and AP Environmental Science (APES) courses.
In APHG, the DTM is included in Unit 2, Population and Migration Patterns and Processes. Topic 2.5 in the APHG framework is “The Demographic Transition Model.”
In APES, the DTM is included in Unit 3, Populations. Topic 3.9 in the APES framework is “Demographic Transition.”
Conclusion
The demographic transition model can help us understand patterns of population growth as well as point to social, economic, and political trends within a country. Understanding where a country fits into the DTM can give us a better understanding of both modern and historical factors affecting a country’s birth and death rates and helps us make predictions for the future demographics of a country and the world as a whole.