This is part of a series of articles on the DTM. Find an overview of the model and read about Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3, and Stage 4.
When a country is in stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), its birth rate has fallen below its death rate. When more people are dying than being born in a country, the population’s overall size decreases and more of the population is middle-aged or elderly than young. A country in stage 5 of the DTM has a negative rate of natural increase, but the speed of the population decrease may be anywhere from fast to slow. For some stage 5 DTM countries, immigration to the country is enough to offset negative population growth, but many stage 5 DTM countries have populations that are declining regardless of immigration.
Key Characteristics of DTM Stage 5
- Birth rate is low
- Death rate is low
- Birth rate is lower than death rate
- Population is shrinking, except for some countries growing through immigration
How Do Countries End Up in DTM Stage 5?
Countries move into stage 5 of the DTM for many disparate social and economic reasons. Some stage 5 DTM countries are very wealthy, with high rates of education and economies with a large share of knowledge workers. The cost of living in these countries is often high, making it more difficult for young people to achieve the economic stability they want before having children.
In other stage 5 DTM countries, the economy is stagnant or declining, and young people move to other countries to seek better economic opportunities. With fewer young people present in a population, fewer babies are born, and birth rates decline even more quickly than they may have otherwise.
It is a relatively new phenomenon for countries to be in stage 5 of the DTM. Some countries began seeing birth rates lower than death rates starting in the late 20th century, but it has only been in the last couple of decades that many countries have moved into stage 5. Countries in stage 5 of the DTM include South Korea, Japan, Portugal, and all of eastern Europe.
Stage 5 DTM Case Study: Bulgaria
Bulgaria is in stage 5 of the demographic transition model. It is a country in eastern Europe on the Balkan Peninsula and is home to 6.4 million people.
In 2024, Bulgaria had a birth rate of 9 and a death rate of 16, making its rate of natural increase -0.7%. Its birth rate has been lower than its death rate since the late 1980s, when its population peaked at nearly 9 million people. Bulgaria’s population is expected to keep declining to around 5.5 million people by 2050 and 3.5 million people by the end of the century.
Because birth rates have been low for decades, there are few of child-bearing age in Bulgaria today. The average age of Bulgaria’s residents is 45.1 years, making it one of the oldest countries in the world. More and more of Bulgaria’s population is expected to be elderly in the coming decades: by 2070, people over 60 will make up at least one-third of the population.
Bulgaria also faces high levels of emigration to other countries. Young people in Bulgaria face massive barriers to finding employment, with nearly 15% of its population consisting of unemployed people of working age. Because of this, many young Bulgarians have sought economic opportunities in other countries, especially since Bulgaria joined the European Union in 2007. Because the EU allows for free movement and work among its member states, many young Bulgarians have moved abroad in search of better economic opportunities. Estimates of the total number of Bulgarians living abroad range from 1 million to 2.5 million people, and very few Bulgarian emigrants return to Bulgaria permanently.
Bulgaria’s 2024 total fertility rate (TFR) was higher at 1.8 than many other countries in stages 4 and 5 of the DTM. This is because total fertility rate is calculated as the number of births a woman between the ages of 15 and 44 is expected to have over the course of her lifetime. As discussed, there are fewer women of childbearing age in Bulgaria compared to other countries, meaning that the births that do occur are concentrated among a smaller population. More births occurring per woman makes TFR relatively higher in Bulgaria, even though the population is declining.
Conclusion: Stage 5 of the DTM, and Beyond?
As of right now, stage 5 of the DTM is considered the final stage in the process. Because it is a relatively recent phenomenon for countries to be in stage 5 of the DTM, demographers don’t know if countries will remain in this phase indefinitely or move onto a new, undiscovered phase of demographic transition. With more and more countries entering stage 5 of the DTM, population growth patterns are in an unprecedented era of change around the world. Even as the global population continues to grow, localized population growth changes are having an enormous impact on politics and society around the world. While some countries seek to increase birth rates and reverse demographic transition trends, others are planning for a time where population growth cannot be relied upon as a key economic engine. The coming years will show how people and governments around will respond to a new era in population dynamics around the world.