This post is part of a series of articles on the DTM. Find an overview of the model and introduction to the blog series here. Read about DTM Stage 2, Stage 3, Stage 4, and Stage 5.
When countries are in stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), birth rates are high and death rates are high. A country’s population growth is unstable in stage 1 of the DTM, and the population may be growing very slowly or not growing at all. Birth and death rates may have significant fluctuations from year to year.
DTM Stage 1 Quick Facts
• Birth rate is high
• Death rate is high
• Population is growing slowly or not at all, and not consistently
Why Birth and Death Rates Were High in Stage 1
Historically, countries in stage 1 of the DTM did not have modern nutrition, sanitation, healthcare, and other factors that would reduce the overall death rate. This led to high death rates, and especially high rates of infant and child mortality, where many children died as infants or in early childhood. High death rates in childhood, combined with lack of access to family planning and a need for agricultural labor within families, led to high birth rates.
What Countries are in Stage 1 of the DTM?
Today, there are no countries in stage 1 of the DTM. This stage is often considered the “pre-industrial” stage that most countries existed in prior to the modern developments of the Industrial Revolution. When scientific innovation and industrial processes allowed for better food, medical treatment, education, and other quality of life improvements, death rates began to decline around the world, and countries exited stage 1 of the DTM.
Stage 1 of the DTM is best understood today as the baseline from which demographic transition begins rather than a demographic model still seen anywhere in the world.
History of DTM Stage 1
The earliest countries to reduce their death rates were those that benefited early from the innovations of the Industrial Revolution, primarily in Northern America and western Europe. Some countries, like Sweden, exited stage 1 of the DTM as early as the year 1800. Massive improvements in things like nutrition, literacy, and sanitation helped more Swedish children survive until adulthood and ultimately for the death rate to decrease rapidly for all Swedish people.
But it took much longer for many other countries to reap the benefits of modern medicine and industrialization. Many countries whose death rates remained high into the 20th century were those whose people and resources were exploited by countries that benefited from the first wave of the Industrial Revolution, especially through imperial rule. By 1950, many wealthy countries had been out of stage 1 of the DTM for a hundred or more years, with falling death rates to reflect that fact. But globally, 23% of all children worldwide died before the age of 5, and in many parts of the world, mortality was as high as it had ever been.
Mortality rates began to fall across the world starting in the mid-20th century and accelerated significantly after 1990 as medicine and nutrition began to improve across the world. Child mortality today is 59% lower than it was in 1990, and overall death rates adjusted for age have declined 67% since 1950.
Conclusion: Moving from Stage 1 to Stage 2 of the DTM
Understanding stage 1 of the DTM is important for understanding the impacts that modern advances have had on global demography and the population growth rate. As the world’s countries exited stage 1 of the DTM, they moved into stage 2 of the DTM, where death rates are low but birth rates remain high. The next post in this blog series looks at the characteristics of stage 2 of the DTM and uses Papua New Guinea as a case study of DTM stage 2 countries.