This is part of a series of articles on the DTM. Find an overview of the model and read about Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 4, and Stage 5.
What Is Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model?
When a country is in stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), its death rate is low and its birth rate is decreasing to approach parity with the death rate. A country in stage 3 of the DTM still has a growing population, but the rate of that increase is slowing compared to the rapid rate of population growth found in stage 2.
Stage 3 is the most dynamic of all stages in the DTM, as a stage 3 country’s birth rate may be relatively high or low. Identifying where a country’s birth rate fits into its overall historical trend is key to determining if it is currently in stage 3. If a country’s death rate is low and its birth rate is declining but has not yet reached the same level as its death rate, it’s in DTM stage 3.
Key Characteristics of DTM Stage 3
- Birth rates are declining from historical levels
- Death rates are low
- The population is growing, but not as quickly as it used to
Why Birth Rates Decrease in DTM Stage 3
A decrease in birth rate is heavily associated with improvement in the status of women, especially improved access to education and medical care. When a girl attends school, she is less likely to be married as a child, which in turn corresponds to having fewer children over the course of her lifetime. Access to family planning services similarly lowers the overall birth rate, as women and girls can choose how many children they want and when to have them. Both of these factors correspond to an increase in a country’s wealth and overall economic development. Higher overall wealth allows for more extensive educational and medical services to be provided, and improving the status of women supports economic development in turn.
Where Is Stage 3 of the DTM Common Today?
Some countries see a precipitous drop in birth rate and move quickly through stage 3 and into stage 4 of the DTM, while other countries decrease their birth rate more slowly and stay in stage 3 for years or decades. Most Latin American and Asian countries are in stage 3 of the DTM today, along with a significant portion of Africa.
Examples of Countries in Stage 3 of the DTM: Egypt Case Study
Egypt is in stage 3 of the demographic transition model. It is the most populous country in the Middle East and North Africa (over 106 million people in 2024) and is home to one of the largest African economies.
In 2024, Egypt had a birth rate of 19 births per 1,000 people and a death rate of 6 deaths per 1,000 people, making its rate of natural increase 1.4% and its total fertility rate 2.6. Egypt’s birth rate has steadily declined since 1960, when its birth rate was more than double its current level at 47 births per 1,000 people.
This initial decline was fueled largely by the massive expansion of family planning services starting in the 1960s and an increase in the average age of marriage for women. This decline in the birth rate accelerated during the 1980s, then stagnated in the early part of the 21st century, and now continues to decline as the birth rate approaches an equal level with the death rate. This overall trend is what identifies Egypt as in stage 3 of the DTM.
Egypt’s total fertility rate briefly rose beginning in the late 2000s, when the birth rate of educated women rose and became more similar to those of women who hadn’t completed secondary school. Demographers point to the poor labor market at the time as contributing to this rise in fertility: when educated women faced limited job prospects in line with their skill levels, many women chose to get married and start families earlier than they might have otherwise. These harsh economic conditions were a major reason for the Arab Spring, a movement across the Arab world in the early 2010s when many governments were overthrown, including Egypt’s.
Today, economic prospects for Egypt’s young people remain challenging, with young women facing unemployment rates of nearly 36%, more than triple the unemployment rate for young men. Yet Egyptian fertility rates are once again decreasing. Fertility rates for educated women are still much closer to those of uneducated women than they were historically, but contraceptive use has increased and women’s desired number of children has fallen from 2.8 to 2.1 since 2014. Though economic conditions have undoubtedly slowed the rate at which Egypt’s birth rate is falling, women’s increasing ability to choose their own family sizes have made a large impact on Egypt’s movement through stage 3 of the DTM.
How Countries Move from Stage 3 to Stage 4
Stage 3 DTM countries are more difficult to immediately identify than countries in other stages of the DTM. Placement in stage 3 depends on historical context within a country rather than absolute ratios between birth and death rates. Looking at changes in birth rates over time can help locate a country within stage 3 of the DTM. Once a country’s birth rate is around the same level as its death rate, the country enters stage 4 of the DTM. The next blog post in this series will look at what identifies a country as in stage 4 of the DTM and will examine Brazil as a case study of DTM stage 4.
Image credits: Egypt birth rate graph (from the World Bank is licensed under CC BY 4.0)