This is part of a series of articles on the DTM. Find an overview of the model and read about Stage 1, Stage 3, Stage 4, and Stage 5. 

What Is Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model?

When a country is in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), its birth rate is significantly higher than its death rate. This shift from stage 1 (high birth and death rates) occurs when a country’s death rate falls dramatically, especially among children, and its birth rate remains high. Countries in stage 2 of the demographic transition model have the highest rates of population growth. When people have better access to medicine, nutrition, education, technology, and other quality of life improvements, they are more likely to survive to adulthood and have children of their own.

Key Characteristics of DTM Stage 2

• Birth rates are high
• Death rates are falling quickly
• Countries have a high rate of population growth

Why Death Rates Fall in DTM Stage 2

Much of the global decrease in mortality rates comes from a reduction in child deaths, which once made up a significant portion of overall mortality. Though historical information on child mortality is limited, data from some areas shows child mortality rates as high as 50 percent in pre-Industrial times. Children are more vulnerable to disease, malnutrition, and other physical ailments because of their smaller bodies and still-developing immune systems.

Advances in medicine and nutrition have been incredibly effective in bringing down child mortality and the global death rate as a whole. Today, child mortality is 59% lower than it was in 1990. Decreases in global death rates have also been seen among young adults, and overall life expectancy reached a high of 73 years in 2019. Technological advances improved people’s health and brought death rates down to the historically low levels we see globally today.

Why Birth Rates Remain High in DTM Stage 2

Persistent poverty, lack of access to reproductive healthcare, disparities in education access for girls, and high rates of child marriages all contribute to high birth rates for countries in stage 2. Today, most countries in stage 2 are among the least developed economically. Some are contending with warfare and civil unrest that disrupt access to services and hinder further economic growth. Death rates for countries in stage 2 are comparable to those in other countries; their high birth rates are what distinguish them as still being in stage 2. Many countries in stage 2 of the DTM have had high birth rates and low death rates for decades.

History of DTM Stage 2

Countries in Europe and North America began to enter stage 2 of the DTM in the late 18th century, when the Industrial Revolution facilitated widespread innovations that brought down mortality rates. Other countries continued to transition to stage 2 of the DTM throughout the 1800s and into the 20th century. By the 1960s, nearly every country had transitioned to stage 2 of the DTM or already moved past it. This time period coincides with the increase in global population growth that quickly took global population from 3 billion in 1959 to 8 billion in 2021.

Examples of Countries in Stage 2 of the DTM: Papua New Guinea Case Study

Papua New Guinea is in stage 2 of the demographic transition model. It is the second largest country in Oceania by population (9.7 million people in 2024) and is located on the eastern half of the island New Guinea, 90 miles off the northern coast of Australia.

In 2024, Papua New Guinea had a birth rate of 25 births per 1,000 people and a death rate of 7 per 1,000 people, making its rate of natural increase 1.8% and its total fertility rate 3.1. Papua New Guinea’s death rate is among the lowest of all countries in Oceania, but its birth rate is among the highest – a key feature of a country in stage 2 of the DTM. Australia and New Zealand, the only other countries in Oceania with a population over 1 million people, both have a birth rate of 11 per 1,000 people.

Papua New Guinea’s birth rate has fallen from its peak in the 1960s but has remained relatively stagnant since the late 1990s. Many of the reasons for Papua New Guinea’s high birth rate are similar to those of other countries in stage 2 of the DTM: nearly a quarter of the adult female population has an unmet need for modern family planning methods, and the rate of child marriage remains stubbornly high at 27%.

But Papua New Guinea also faces unique barriers. Its population is highly rural, and its mountainous geography is difficult to traverse, limiting access to healthcare and social services. Economic development of its vast natural resources has also done little to benefit Papua New Guinea’s residents: a World Bank report states that despite high growth in Papua New Guinea’s GDP since 2009, the rate of poverty has remained more or less the same.

Much progress has been made, but the United Nations estimates that Papua New Guinea’s population will continue to grow at around the same rate until the end of the century, at which its population is expected to double to nearly 20 million people.

Conclusion: Moving from Stage2 to Stage 3 of the DTM

For much of the 20th century, many countries were in stage 2 of the DTM. That number has dramatically declined, and today, there are very few countries still in DTM stage 2. Once a country’s birth rate starts to decline, it enters stage 3 of the DTM, where a country’s population is still growing but not as quickly as stage 2 countries. The next blog post in this series will explore what identifies a country as in stage 3 of the DTM and will look at Egypt as a case study of stage 3 DTM countries.