This is part of a series of articles on the DTM. Find an overview of the model and read about Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3, and Stage 5.
When a country is in stage 4 of the demographic transition model, its birth rate and its death rate are both low. While its population may still be growing, especially from population momentum, a country in stage 4 of the DTM has a low overall growth rate and doubling time. Some countries proceed very quickly to stage 4 of the DTM, while other countries take more time to gradually lower their birth rates. Stage 4 DTM countries may have overall populations of any size.
Key Characteristics of DTM Stage 4
- Birth rate is low
- Death rate is low
- Population growth is slowing, then stable
Why Birth and Death Rates Are Low in Stage 4
These low birth and death rates in stage 4 countries are enabled by strong economic systems, robust educational access, relative equality for women, and expansive health care. The residents of a country in stage 4 of the DTM have decision-making power over their own family sizes and on average choose to have fewer children. Stage 4 DTM countries usually have low rates of child marriage and teen pregnancy. When women and girls have access to education, healthcare, and fulfilling work, they tend to delay childbearing into their adulthood and ultimately have smaller family sizes.
Many countries have proceeded to stage 4 of the DTM, especially many of the world’s wealthiest countries. The United States, China, Australia, and much of South America and Europe are all in stage 4 of the DTM today.
Stage 4 DTM Case Study: Brazil
Brazil is in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model. It is the largest country in South America by both land and population and is home to over 212 million people.
In 2024, Brazil had a birth rate of 12 births per 1,000 people and a death rate of 7 deaths per 1,000 people, making its rate of natural increase 0.5%. Brazil’s total fertility rate in 2024 was 1.6. Brazil’s fertility rate has been low since the early 2000s after a steady decline since the 1960s. Birth rates declined most quickly in the wealthier, more educated parts of the country, with fertility rates declining first in the country’s major cities, then in southeastern states and regional city centers, and finally in the country’s interior states and rural areas.
These declines coincided with rapid expansion in family planning access and an increase in female labor force participation. Unlike many other countries, Brazil’s government didn’t establish a formal program to expand family planning access until the 1990s, and abortion remains illegal on a national level. Birth control is nevertheless widely used by women in Brazil. Brazil has similarly closed the gap in girls’ educational access, with more women finishing college degrees than men. This expansion of education coincided with more women working outside of the home.
Despite this considerable progress, Brazil has persistently high rates of income inequality, especially for people of Black and indigenous descent, rural populations, and those with less than a college education. The fertility rates in Brazil’s poorest states are higher than in the rest of the country. Adolescent birth rates in these states are more than double the adolescent birth rates in Brazil’s wealthiest areas. Though rates in these areas are still high, they are nevertheless steeply declining from even a decade ago. Researchers credit education access and family planning options as key to this declining trend.
Conclusion: Moving from Stage 4 to Stage 5 of the DTM
As more and more countries proceed through the stages of the demographic transition model, stage 4 countries have become increasingly prevalent around the world. Though many countries have stayed in stage 4 of the DTM for years, others are seeing their birth rates continue to drop. When stage 4 countries see their birth rates drop below their death rates, they enter stage 5 of the DTM instead. The next blog post in this series examines the characteristics of stage 5 of the DTM and looks at Bulgaria as a case study.